Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
